Previous works using a variety of approaches of increasing complexity, from correlation-based models 22– 24 to process-based models 25, 26, consistently indicate that fire risk is expected to increase in the future.
#De pfaffs seizoen 1 full version updated 2018 drivers
Several studies support the hypothesis that in Southern Europe, summer drought conditions and high temperatures are primary drivers of the inter-annual variability of fires 9, 12– 21. Under changing climate conditions, several possible pathways of wildfire response can be identified depending on the magnitude of climate change, as well as on differences in how fires, vegetation, and humans respond to such changes 11. These fires caused extensive economic and ecological losses and even human casualties 10. For instance, the fire season in 2017 was severe in many regions of Southern Europe, with large wildfires in southern France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain associated with unusually intense droughts and heatwaves. Mediterranean Europe is a relevant region for such an analysis because fires frequently burn across this area, causing severe economic and environmental damage, including loss of lives, infrastructures, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and the provisioning of raw materials, with an average of approximately 4500 km 2 burned every year 7– 9.
However, the translation of ambitious warming targets into impacts on future wildfires remains to be studied. To provide updated information for the proposed IPCC special report, recent research efforts have significantly boosted our knowledge on the risks at 1.5 and 2 ☌ of warming, focusing on climate extremes 2 and the relevant impacts on agriculture 3, power generation 4, ecosystems 5, and hydrology 6. Following the invitation from the UNFCCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is preparing a report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ☌ above pre-industrial levels ( ) to be published in 2018 1. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), signed in December 2015, aims “to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 ☌ above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ☌…”.
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